CSU keeps active Atlantic hurricane season forecast, eyes fewer named storms; Debby update

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Meteorologists at Colorado State University (CSU) maintained their forecast of an active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season but slightly reduced the number of named storms they expect to see.

The forecasters at CSU still expect 12 storms to reach hurricane strength this season, with six of them expected to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or higher.

A Category 3 storm is one with maximum sustained winds of 111 miles/hour or faster.

The only change from the July update is the expectations of 23 named storms, down from 25.

Hurricanes Beryl and Debby, as well as tropical storms Alberto and Chris are included in the current forecast.

Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the Texas Coast on 8 July and caused damage that led to several declarations of force majeure (FM) and multiple outages across petrochemical complexes and major hubs of production along the US Gulf Coast.

Hurricane Debby made landfall on 5 August in northwestern Florida and weakened into a tropical storm before creeping slowly across Georgia and back into the Atlantic Ocean, where it was hovering near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

It is expected to make a second landfall in the Carolinas and then continue up the Eastern Seaboard.

Terminals at the Port of Savannah were closed on Tuesday, but officials anticipate reopening on Wednesday once the US Coast Guard completes its waterway inspection and offshore wind analysis.

The South Caroline Ports Authority is operating normal gate hours on Tuesday and will shift to reduced hours on Wednesday.

Forecasters at AccuWeather are warning about extreme flooding risk in the next 72 hours from Debby with 2 feet of rainfall expected in parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

IMPACT ON CHEMICAL PRODUCTION
Damage from hurricanes can lead to increased demand for chemicals, but hurricanes and tropical storms can also disrupt the North American petrochemical industry because many of the nation’s plants and refineries are along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas and Louisiana.

In 2022, oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico accounted for about 15% of total US crude oil production and about 2% of total US dry natural gas production, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Even the threat of a major storm can disrupt oil and natural gas supplies because companies often evacuate US Gulf platforms as a precaution.

IMPACT ON RECYCLING
Severe weather, including tropical storms, heavy rain and winter weather, can easily disrupt curbside and deposit collection efforts, thus limiting the incoming supply of polyethyelene terephthlate (PET) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) bottles for recycling.

If collection efforts are delayed, in some cases, material will be routed to landfill, as material recovery facilities (MRFs) have limits on input processing abilities and are unable to catch up.

Additionally, MRFs must often dry out wet mixed recyclable material to optimize the sorting process, which can further delay processing.